September 11, 2007

Sky Not Falling, Update

In 2003, Forrester Research (see Nailed) estimated that DVR's would be in about 26% of homes by now.

In fact, Nielsen reported earlier this year that DVR's were in 17% of homes. About 1/3 fewer than Forrester had predicted.

Always remember that without change nobody needs research. Consequently, it is baked into the DNA of research companies to emphasize (and, unfortunately, sometimes exaggerate) what is changing, and downplay what is stable.

Exaggerating change works for research companies in two ways:

1. It gets them press. Nobody ever got famous predicting that things would stay pretty much the same.

2. It gets them customers. There's no bigger sucker than a gullible marketer convinced he's missing a wave.


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