August 29, 2008

See You In September

In observance of "Worldwide No Blogging Week" The Ad Contrarian is -- you guessed it -- not blogging this week. Happy Labor Day.

August 28, 2008

Online Chaos

In observance of "Worldwide No Blogging Week" The Ad Contrarian is -- you guessed it -- not blogging this week. Instead we'll be posting some oldies. Here's one.

Here's why your viral campaign went nowhere; why your video on YouTube is getting way fewer hits than you expected; and why your blog was a bust.

The internet is chaotic. Success is random and unpredictable. Most success is the result of one person's good, odd idea and is very hard to duplicate or recreate. Creative strategy is less important than execution on the web.

You can make a hit record by making it sound like a previous hit. You can make a hit tv show by fashioning it on a previous show. But the internet is voracious. Look-alikes are not likely to be successful.

Chaos and oddness are difficult to plan or predict. There are, and will continue to be, a lot of one-hit wonders.

August 27, 2008

Death Of Mass Marketing Postponed

In observance of "Worldwide No Blogging Week" The Ad Contrarian is -- you guessed it -- not blogging this week. Instead we'll be posting oldies. Here's one.

December 28, 2004 NEW YORK (New York Times) -- Jim Nail, principal analyst at Forrester Research, said, “You’re seeing the end of the era of mass marketing.”

October 30, 2007 NEW YORK (AdAge.com) -- ...ad time for the Super Bowl is nearly sold out... A person familiar with the situation said Fox has sold more than 90% of its ad time for the game..."it's just weird to even consider that if you want to be in there, you've got to act in November," said Jeff Gagne, VP-account director at Havas's MPG....Given the demand, the network could seek more than full price for the remaining ad roosts.

Researchers enjoy a unique position in the marketing world. Because they blind us with numbers, they are taken very seriously. The fact that their analyses of these numbers are so often wrong is the dirty little secret no one mentions. Rarely are they held accountable for the idiotic nonsense they spout (e.g., the "end of...mass marketing.")

Collecting data is easy. You don't need to be smart to do it. Analyzing data -- understanding what it means and what should be done -- is hard. That's the part you need to be smart for. And that's the part that most researchers are awful at.

Remember, a researcher is nothing more than another guy with an opinion. Like you and me.

For more on this, see "Baloney Sandwich" and "Nailed"