tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5249997465016074955.post4566714364915496349..comments2023-12-23T21:59:20.634-08:00Comments on The Ad Contrarian: The Duality Of Consumer BehaviorBOB HOFFMANhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05158827977385952634noreply@blogger.comBlogger19125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5249997465016074955.post-23436189009740874782014-10-22T05:30:24.345-07:002014-10-22T05:30:24.345-07:00Actually, Toyota tends to have higher shop rates (...Actually, Toyota tends to have higher shop rates (at least where I live...) so the TCO (note: actual, not perceived as MG touched upon above) would also be higher for the Corolla. Which supports the argument still; it simply means the emotional trigger has to be even bigger. <br /><br />That being said, emotional triggers can be "rational" as well. If you've had great experiences with Toyota and bad experiences with Chevy, choosing the more expensive option is a "won't get fooled again" hedge against perceived future costs (and pain).<br /><br />The (imperfect) litmus test would be this: if a decision is based on facts, either real or perceived, it is a rational decision and the emotional triggers are a bonus. If it is a rationalization based on conjecture (as often happens in sales), then the emotional trigger is firmly in control. As Bob mentions though, there is a duality at work that is hard to predict at any given moment.<br /><br />(I think that's called "Iacocca's Cat"...)<br /><br />~GrahamGraham Strongnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5249997465016074955.post-87703024972302055252014-10-21T20:11:43.504-07:002014-10-21T20:11:43.504-07:00Do ad agencies in the West actually think so simpl...Do ad agencies in the West actually think so simplistically? My colleagues in Japan seem well aware that the proper balance of appeals to reason and emotion varies from product to product and from one target group of consumers to another.John McCreerynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5249997465016074955.post-4535254916335615592014-10-21T18:51:10.785-07:002014-10-21T18:51:10.785-07:00NB: in scientific terms, theory is a perfectly app...NB: in scientific terms, theory is a perfectly appropriate word if you have proof - "hypothesis" is what you're thinking about. Evolution or General Relativity are referred to as theories because they are proven to work.LeShannnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5249997465016074955.post-47475375067099419912014-10-21T01:17:33.179-07:002014-10-21T01:17:33.179-07:00Funny, I was in the middle of writing something si...Funny, I was in the middle of writing something similar, but targeted at a different aspect - the difficulty of a unified marketing theory (similar to quantum/relativity in physics) between the "laws" dictating performance of smaller/niche brands and those of the larger/leading brands. I guess studying/teaching physics is inevitably driving to hyperbole. <br /><br /><br />Anyway, I do wonder if the availability model put together by Sharp and co is not part of the response to most of these. I suspect convenience is a great normalizer of consumer decision, whether in "wave" or "particle" mode - eg easier to chose, easier to remember, easier to find, easier to buy. I also think more work needs to be done in understanding salience (not just TOM awareness or attitudes, which can at best be proxies of understanding mental convenience/availability).<br /><br /><br />Another way to look at it is the probabilistic nature of behavior. Individual decisions are very random, influenced by so many variables, but what models like the Dirichlet model show is that with enough time things tend to get back to a norm. This is in part why high penetration brands have an edge over the smaller ones, which I would hypothesize could explain the Corolla thing - Toyota has a higher penetration with the consumer segment than Chevy, if that penetration was inverted it's likely that Chevy would outsell Toyota, without having any changes in brand positioning. In other words, big brands have a strong head start on convenience, and convenience could be a much better driver of decision making than any other metric we normally use.<br /><br /><br />We do not understand yet the full implications of the mental/physical availability model put forward by the Ehrenberg Bass institute, but they might hold a key to better understanding it.LeShannnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5249997465016074955.post-10445429450342967412014-10-20T19:03:43.954-07:002014-10-20T19:03:43.954-07:00As a very wet behind the ears young copywriter, a ...As a very wet behind the ears young copywriter, a grey haired strategist once told me that 'allowing for all possible variables the consumer will do exactly as they damn well please'.<br /><br />It's an insight into human nature that has served me well over the decades.Eccles9noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5249997465016074955.post-86479582868695537642014-10-20T17:23:45.666-07:002014-10-20T17:23:45.666-07:00Emotion isn't the opposite or contrary of reas...Emotion isn't the opposite or contrary of reason. Emotion and reason are two components of the human consciousness. Emotion is the reaction to sensory stimulation. Reason is the power of the intellect to penetrate beneath the surface of a thing to perceive truth. You can pit them one against the other to see a set of polar opposites, but you can see them as cooperating parts of a system. That's more accurate and more productive an outlook.Hanknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5249997465016074955.post-52552610167405568922014-10-20T17:09:25.147-07:002014-10-20T17:09:25.147-07:00You're going to have to change the name of you...You're going to have to change the name of your agency ...<br /><br />Type A. Or Type B. It depends.Shanghai61noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5249997465016074955.post-84820735799179673992014-10-20T12:23:54.737-07:002014-10-20T12:23:54.737-07:00I am told by economics students that the principle...I am told by economics students that the principle of "ceteris paribus" (translated as "other things being equal") almost never truly applies. I had a client who manufactured identical products (same materials, same factories, same designs) under different brands to create price points. Needless to say, the more expensive brand was perceived, in nearly every test, as being better.<br /><br /><br />However, there was better distribution of the more expensive brand, better tech support, etc. So the products were not only perceived as differing in quality, but actually were different.<br /><br /><br />I also suspect there's an effect akin to Gladwell's "thin-slicing" that takes place: Sometimes, when I want a thing, I want it, and become immune to rational appeals, or even price points.<br /><br /><br />I see the difference you describe in agencies' attitudes toward B2B: Some insist B2B is different from B2C. Others insist it's identical. Not so paradoxically under your thesis, both are wrong.<br /><br /><br />Yup, I'm both a particle and a wave.timorrnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5249997465016074955.post-23126009932094132512014-10-20T12:19:53.163-07:002014-10-20T12:19:53.163-07:00If I, as a consumer, knew that the vehicles were t...If I, as a consumer, knew that the vehicles were the same aside from the badge, I think that's an emotional trigger to pay more for one than the other. Identical vehicle = identical TCO. The only rational differentiators at that point are service quality and resale value. Right? The emotional trigger would be pride, I think, but I find that difficult to swallow at that price point. Still, could be...Cecil B. DeMillenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5249997465016074955.post-9432233688732102682014-10-20T09:48:30.716-07:002014-10-20T09:48:30.716-07:00Another factor could be that consumers thought (at...Another factor could be that consumers thought (at the time) that Chevy, who did muscle cars well, couldn't compete with the Japanese when it comes to small, fuel efficient and reliable.<br /><br /><br />Anyone who ever drove or rode in the cars that were developed as a result of the 70s energy crisis knows what I'm talking about.<br /><br /><br />Chrysler K-Car anyone?Gnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5249997465016074955.post-86497320879973865082014-10-20T09:25:25.157-07:002014-10-20T09:25:25.157-07:00correct againcorrect againStephen Eichenbaumnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5249997465016074955.post-22577766246600091352014-10-20T07:43:33.853-07:002014-10-20T07:43:33.853-07:00In the Corolla case, is the decision truly based o...In the Corolla case, is the decision truly based on emotion, or does the perceived TCO come into play? In other words, do the Toyota buyers pay more for the vehicle because of a historical, data-based lower total cost of ownership over the long haul.<br /><br /><br />If that is the case, fallacy or not (based on how and where the vehicle were manufactured), it would seem that buyers were in fact attempting to inject financial logic into the argument, not buy purely on the basis of brand.MGnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5249997465016074955.post-19315691012344505762014-10-20T06:33:56.219-07:002014-10-20T06:33:56.219-07:00the analogy seems right, but definitions of ration...the analogy seems right, but definitions of rational and irrational are not perfect as psychologists define rationality in an abstract way and not in a way that reflects human knowledge of risks (see Taleb 'Silent Risk'). So I bet you will present one unifing theory :) can't waitSwopardnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5249997465016074955.post-56639936021361221942014-10-20T05:45:11.079-07:002014-10-20T05:45:11.079-07:00Classification is a man-made construct. It works i...Classification is a man-made construct. It works in the specific, but fails in the general. You can call the Road Runner "supersonicus delicious" but not all birds are the Road Runner. They could be fleet of foot or tasty or neither one or both. Is that what you're saying? (I'm not very smart and require cartoon analogies to fully grasp complex subject matter.)<br /><br /><br />I agree with your theory, Bob – which has far more proof than the word "theory" would suggest – and I'm eager to see how you develop it.Cecil B. DeMillenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5249997465016074955.post-58065160785507513242014-10-20T05:24:13.721-07:002014-10-20T05:24:13.721-07:00This couldn't be more relevant, I literally ju...This couldn't be more relevant, I literally just put down Predictably Irrational last night. Great post! Can't wait for the follow ups.Davisnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5249997465016074955.post-64972581120527265482014-10-20T04:38:21.275-07:002014-10-20T04:38:21.275-07:00Looking forward to 2 and 3 - brilliant post. It in...Looking forward to 2 and 3 - brilliant post. It interests me that agencies and marketers tend to see themselves in one camp or another regarding how consumers are. The problem with this is to focus on the individual (are they emotional or rational) and not social context. <br /><br /><br />The car example is a good one for showing people to be irrational for example. Yet if we look at what it means to some people to own a Toyota v a Chevy in society we may gain some answers. However, how did one car get to be seen as more desirable for example than the other in the first place, what is the brand trading off of? <br /><br /><br />The heuristic / short cuts that people make are often shown by cognitive scientists like Kahneman for example to show the faults or irrationality in people. Yet the psychologist Gigerenzer shows that many heuristic that people use actually are reasonable and help people make pretty good decisions. <br /><br /><br />Predicting human behaviour by focusing on whether people are rational or emotional agents will under perform I think compared to utilising social trends that predict behaviour. However, this may mean that you are predicting behaviour that may not be to your liking.<br /><br /><br />So the question I think becomes what human capacity would you like to defend?Jim Powellnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5249997465016074955.post-59362626689310241852014-10-20T03:41:51.661-07:002014-10-20T03:41:51.661-07:00Spot on! You should just post all three so I can b...Spot on! You should just post all three so I can binge read them before tomorrow's marketing meeting.Jeffrey Summershttp://SHGWW.com/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5249997465016074955.post-5412088700722396902014-10-20T03:32:58.742-07:002014-10-20T03:32:58.742-07:00I agree Bob, I think something that makes ad agenc...I agree Bob, I think something that makes ad agencies look particularly stupid is what I call their 'blind absolutism' where they believe that one kind of consumer behaviour is all pervading across all categories and brands, and therefore that one kind of advertising is the answer… <br /><br />http://sellsellblog.blogspot.co.uk/2014/09/a-fat-man-reaching-for-cream-bun.htmlSell! Sell!http://sellsellblog.blogspot.co.uk/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5249997465016074955.post-77724368273172761172014-10-20T02:42:28.449-07:002014-10-20T02:42:28.449-07:00Know that I am infinitely pleased that there is a ...Know that I am infinitely pleased that there is a cynical ad man out there with a horrendously popular blog who described, using quantum physics, the dual nature of human - and by extension, consumer - behaviour.<br /><br />You nailed it.Schweighnoreply@blogger.com