Social Media, Politics, and Marketing

Ad Age had a very interesting piece on the effect of social media on politics. The conclusion they reached was that social media has not had nearly the impact claimed on politics in the US.

According to Ad Age...

"...while it is tempting to believe that the size of a candidate's online fan-base is significantly helpful in getting elected, the numbers just don't add up."

Some examples:

• In 2010, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid ran against Tea Party favorite Sharron Angle for a senate seat in Nevada. Angle had seven times the number of Facebook followers. Reid won easily. 

• In the Republican primary race, Ron Paul has six times as many Facebook followers as Rick Santorum, but Santorum is charging and Paul is going nowhere.

• Mitt Romney has a stronger social media presence than either Santorum or Paul yet he has lost the last three primaries.

• According to Chuck Todd and Sheldon Gawiser who wrote "How Barack Obama Won," the often ballyhooed young social-media recruits credited with carrying him to the White House had little to no effect on the election. In fact, the 2008 election was won "by galvanizing an older population of Democrats and independents, many of whom had never used social media." 

According to Ad Age, the reason for this is "People... are far more responsive to personal messages and face-to-face peer pressure" than they are to the ravings of online maniacs.

Which is another way of saying what we've been saying here for years. "Peer-to-peer" social media recommendations are not the equivalent of word-of-mouth recommendations, are not nearly as powerful, and contrary to the assertions of social media hustlers, have not nearly the marketing value.

How Success Happens

This is an amazing success story. It was told to me by a very good friend who swore me to secrecy about the names and details. It goes something like this.

Once upon a time there was an ad agency with two chief creative officers. They had two chiefs because it was a giant agency with giant global clients that proved to be too much for one person to handle.

The two chiefs were very different. One was an artistically-minded intellectual. He was thoughtful, quiet, and introverted.

The other one was much less smart, but was highly political and great fun to be around.

These two chiefs had their own accounts, their own staffs, and generally kept out of each others' way.

They weren't quite equal though. Mr. Quiet had a higher title. His title was President/CCO, while Mr. Fun's title was Exec VP/CCO.

One day Mr. Fun got an important assignment from a client. The assignment was to do a Super Bowl commercial. This was particularly important for the agency because they had a dismal record with Super Bowl spots.

The CEO of the agency called Mr. Quiet and Mr. Fun together. He told them that although the Super Bowl assignment fell to Mr. Fun, he wanted them all to agree on a concept before it went to the client.

Mr. Fun's team worked on the assignment for weeks and developed an idea they were very excited about. When they showed it to Mr. Quiet, he hated it. He thought it was stupid, juvenile, and would cost the agency dearly. Mr. Fun loved it and thought it would be a huge success.

The CEO agreed with Mr. Fun. He also called in the executive leadership of the agency and showed the idea to them. They all agreed with Mr. Fun that it was a great spot. Mr. Quiet was unmoved and fought tooth and nail against the spot.

Mr. Quiet lost the argument and the spot was presented to the client and ultimately aired on the Super Bowl.

It was a big success.

Mr. Quiet, who was well-known but lightly regarded inside the ad industry, suddenly achieved great fame. As the president and chief creative officer of the agency that produced the brilliant Super Bowl spot, he went on to achieve godlike status.

This is not actually an advertising story. But, in honor of the Academy Awards,  it is the true story of one of the most successful movies in history.

The Future of Futurology

How do you get to be a futurologist? I want that job. You just make up a lot of bullshit and by the time it doesn't happen you've already cashed the checks.

I read a truly stunning piece of nonsense by a futurologist in a brain dead article* by a Microsoft marketing big shot the other day. The futurologist had this to say: 

'Only companies that prepare for a very different tomorrow will thrive. In short, get ready for the unfamiliar and the unknown.'

Just curious, Mr. Futurologist, how exactly do you prepare for the unknown?

My Rotten Apple
Back in December I wrote a post about the ease of getting my semi-brilliant book 101 Contrarian Ideas About Advertising published at Amazon's Kindle Store and the infuriating obstacles to getting it published in Apple's iBookstore.

I started the process with the iBookstore in early November. It is now almost March and I've gotten nowhere. It took months to get it "approved" for publication. Now I am in a tangled web of insanity with their amazingly unhelpful "iBookstore Team" to get it uploaded.

Lest you think that this is the disgruntled whining of a techno-idiot, I want you to know that an IT guy has been holding my hand every step of the way. Not only can't we get answers, it takes a month to get a useless reply.

Power Trip
Ad Age has something called the Power 150 in which they rank about 1,100 advertising blogs in terms of... I don't know, they just rank them.

Well, I checked yesterday and this thing was ranked number 59 in the whole freakin' world. It's a frightening thought.

Most of the top 59 aren't even about advertising. They're about unpleasant things like search engine optimization and social media and PR and web strategy and colonoscopies and just about every marketing activity except advertising. Just kidding about the colonoscopies.

Anyway, when you take away all the blogs that aren't really about advertising, we're way higher up than we have any right to be. Especially after yesterday's dumb-ass post about politics.

Spring Training
Heading down to Phoenix to do some cactus league shooting next week. Yes, it's work-related. Yes, I have the world's best job.

*Thanks to Vic at Sell! Sell! for this